Medellín, Colombia – By 2030 there will be 11.5 million fewer children and adolescents of school age in Latin America compared with 2020, according to a recent report released by UNESCO.
After years of steadily falling birthrates – a trend only expected to worsen in the next decade – the report makes clear that education is facing a structural transformation across Latin America.
But experts believe that this demographic shift should not be feared, but rather leveraged as an opportunity to create more equitable, efficient, and inclusive education systems.
“For decades, we have planned to expand the education system. Now we must consider how to plan for a system that is shrinking – and do so without losing sight of the enormous debts we still owe in terms of quality, equity, and inclusion,” said Alejandra Carni, interim Head of the Latin America and Caribbean office at UNESCO’s International Institute for Education Planning.
The UNESCO report projected that, in 14 countries, the projected enrolment will drop by more than 5% in at least one educational level by 2030.
Education systems are being forced to change due to a broader demographic shift; projections from the UN Population Division show that Latin America recorded an estimated 1.2 million fewer births between 2015 and 2023.
This decline “is a clear reaction to the state of the world”, María Auxiliadora González, an expert on gender equality and peacebuilding projects at Colombia’s EAFIT University, explained to Latin America Reports.
Falling birthrates will impact education levels unevenly: enrolment is expected to drop first in early childhood and primary education, and later in secondary and higher education in the middle of the next decade.
An opportunity for improvement?
These demographic shifts are no longer peripheral; they mark a fundamental break from decades of educational planning built on expansion – more schools, teachers, and infrastructure – and governments must now plan for shrinking systems, even as unresolved equity and inclusion issues remain.
Significant equity and inclusion gaps are found across Latin America and the Caribbean. A 2025 UNESCO regional study of 235 higher-education institutions across 20 countries found that while 91% report having equity and inclusion policies, only 10% pursue approaches aimed at systemic institutional change. Moreover, more than half of institutions themselves acknowledge that their policies are insufficient.
“We are facing a structural transformation that will fundamentally change education planning in Latin America. It is essential to anticipate these shifts to ensure quality, equity, and inclusion in this new context”, outlined Alejandro Vera, Head of Education and Monitoring and Planning Unit at UNESCO Santiago.
The UNESCO report frames population decline not as a threat, but as a historic opportunity to build fairer, more efficient, and more inclusive education systems.
It urged political leaders to move away from planning models that follow the status-quo, instead shifting towards proactive, evidence-driven planning, acting swiftly to innovate and anticipate future challenges.
Key opportunities for innovation include using declining enrollment to improve how resources are spent, better plan the teaching workforce, and rethink pedagogy.
Rather than cutting budgets, systems can redirect funds to close long-standing gaps; adjust teacher training and deployment to avoid shortages; and use smaller cohorts to enable more personalized and innovative learning approaches.
Why is the population contracting?
In its recent Demographic Observatory 2025, the UN reported that 76% of Latin American and Caribbean countries experience fertility rates below the level needed to maintain a stable population without migration.
This trend has unfolded in countries such as Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina and was long viewed as a cultural shift, but a UN-backed study shows it is driven largely by the lack of supportive economic and social conditions.
The study, which spanned 14 countries, representing over one-third of the global population, showed that 20% of people will have fewer children than they want.
The report cites economic insecurity, high living costs, housing constraints and uncertainty about the future as the primary factors making parenthood harder to sustain.
These pressures are reinforced by persistent gender norms: women continue to carry most caregiving responsibilities – often at the expense of their careers – while men who seek active caregiving roles continue to face stigma.
“They are expecting women to simultaneously work more and have more children. If we had more gentle politics based on care this issue would not be as prevalent,” González told Latin America Reports.
The pressures are particularly severe in Latin America, where the data shows that millions confront these challenges daily.
“The figures show that vast sectors of the population want to start families, but cannot,” said United Nations Population Fund Executive Director Natalia Kanem, adding that “the real crisis is one of lack of options, not lack of desire”.
Speaking to Latin America Reports, María Auxiliadora González echoed these sentiments: “The crisis of families is an economic crisis”.
González explained that “economic systems put people in survivor mode”, adding that employers, governments and health systems fail to provide adequate support.
The high cost of education adds further strain, according to González: “It is not that the state was doing more before, but education and healthcare did not used to be as expensive.”
“This is why there is the phenomenon of having pets as children, you don’t have to pay for their university fees,” she joked.
Featured image description: Children study in the public school, Luciliio Da Souza Reis in Juliana in the Amazon region of Brazil near Manaus.
Featured image credit: Julio Pantoja / World Bank
